Cycles up and down

I attended the first half of team space at which we talked about the annual report.
I then attended the second day of the Master Class in Sustainable Development at which we continued to look at ways of developing models and indicators for sustainability - this time looking at how those indicators change over time.
Paul and I had to leave early, because we were also taking part in the Recession Day - which had been delayed from 5th Feb. We visited the CAB - where the big issue is the number of volunteers - the council - where we spoke to their economic advisor - and the Economic and Learning Partnership - where we learnt about the MK response - so far... It was a useful event and we probably learnt a great deal. We'll be meeting up again soon to discuss our follow up...
In the evening I was with Liz Baker for her first wedding rehersal.

Note about Recession Research (Taken from www.MKDeanery.org.uk)
On Tuesday 24th February we had a very interesting afternoon which we used to gather information about the likely effect of the recession on Milton Keynes. There were five of us in the end: Myself, Tim Clapton (our Development Chaplain), Stephen Norrish (who runs the Christian Foundation), Paul Desborough (from New Life West) and David Gregory from Loughton Baptist Church. This was a small ecumenical group but it was just the right size and make-up for the task.
Because the original day had been cancelled due to the snow we were only able to meet three key people, but we were able to interview:
Lynda Evans - Advice Services Manager of the CAB
Ephraidge Rinomhota - Senior Economic Researcher at Milton Keynes Council and
Liz Gifford - Associate Director of Milton Keynes Economy and Learning Partnership
These were all useful meetings and we gathered an enormous amount of information about the effect of the recession on Milton Keynes and the responses being planned by voluntary and civic organisations. We reflected on the cycle of debt which tends to move from employment to housing and finally to relationships. We all agreed that it would be good to keep in touch and work together on this issue over the coming months and years.
Our small group is meeting again in March to discuss our report and any action that we would recommend or attempt to coordinate. We have a number of ideas that we may build on and we are hopeful that something extremely valuable will emerge from this discussion.

I stayed up until three in the morning tackling jobs from the team meeting - so I would be free for the 'recession day' planned for Thursday. I finnally got to sleep sometime arround four but by the time I woke up, Milton Keynes was buried in snow. The school announced closure by 7am so the kids were off. I phoned Stephen Norrish and we agreed that this would not be a good day to visit various officers in CMK - who would all be struggling to get in at all...

So we have an official "snow day"...

What did we do in the morning? We built an igloo. We eventually had to abandon it due to tired children and dodgy walls - but it was heading in the right dirrection...

Unemployment strikes...

There are some figures in circulation about unemployment in MK. According to the Citizen newspaper Jobcentre staff recorded 274, 432, 516 and 530 new benefit claims during the past four weeks - more than double the figures recorded last year.

The BBC have also reported on the gender divide: According to the TUC women are likely to be more affected by the recession than men because "many job losses were occurring in retail and hospitality, where more women than men work." They are also more likely to work in smaller workplaces which often go unnoticed by the media.

With many families dependent on two incomes to pay the mortage this could get very difficult for many couples...

Isla and I remember Milton Keynes in the early nineties when recession last struck this city. We measured the problem by the decline and disapearance of book shops and their slow reappearance. At the lowest point there were no book shops except WH Smiths - all the rest were closed. It took a long time for the good years to come again - although they did. Since then we have been conscious that another economic downturn could really hurt our community. It may be more fragile than it appears.

Last week I learnt a lot about the problems of the more wealthy in South Bucks. This week I am concerned that the economic downturn is clearly affecting people with less room to manouvere.

It's official...

It's official, we're now in recession - although this doesn't actually change much. According to the official statistics the UK has been in "negative growth" since July 2008. The rules of the game state that two quarters of "negative growth" equals one recession so we're in...

Of course this doesn't mean that the sense of "phony war" has quite ended since official statistics don't really tell us what's going on in people's lives...

I've been asking around and reading documents and trying to get a sense of what is really happening. I've read some documents from local businesses and the council which focus (perhaps sensibly) on overall figures - and these figures don't seem too bad. There are jobs, and new houses are still being built - at least on the east of the city...

At the same time there are already a few signs that the recession (and I can now use the word) is already affecting real people. Most congregations in MK seem to have at least one person who has lost a job - and many people report changes in their work place - or to their household budgets... Many of these changes are relatively small but they are significant and they add up to a great deal of stress and worry even if they don't actually affect the big figures quoted by governments, councils and chambers of commerce. Suicides are up apparently and relationships are breaking down. Rumours of war are already producing casualties...

We're still a week or so away from the research day planned with Stephen Norrish, Tim Clapton and Paul Desborough but I am increasingly keen to know what we will discover. For those who don't know, we've set aside a day to talk to some of the people who might now what the likely effects of recession will be in MK so we can think about how churches might respond locally or collectively. I think it's urgent that we respond quickly because there is already quite a bit of hidden pain and we may be able to do a few small things that actually make a difference.

Some of the ideas that have already been suggested would be really easy to implement, e.g.:

• A prayer to say during the course of the crisis
• Discussion groups for those facing redundancy
• Volunteering opportunities for those out of work
  
• A leaflet with useful contact numbers

These are relatively simple ideas that we could put in place very quickly but there may be more... This is an important time for the church in MK to respond to some real needs and it's important to do so thoughtfully and appropriately. The recession is now official but there is almost certainly worse to come...

New Logos for Woughton

I've had a busy morning at the desk, dealing with emails and phone calls. The boiler man has been round for the annual service which went fine. I asked him about the effect of the recession on their business and he said that it's the plumbing side which is most affected - apparently people aren't embarking on major plumbing projects...

I also re-did the Woughton Logos (by request) so that they can draw out individual churches from the main logo - enabling them to have unique documents (like membership forms) for each church which still reflect the overall theme...

From the bunker...

On Thursday I was told that the Church of England's "Emergency Prayers Unit" had produced some prayers for the recession. I love the image of an "emergency prayers unit" and imagine it as a mix between Blackadder goes Forth and Father Ted. Unfoprtunately I haven't been able to find evidence that such a unit actually exists, but it's a nice image.

For those who are interested, here are the prayers:

Prayer on being made redundant

‘Redundant’ – the word says it all -
‘useless,
unnecessary,
without purpose,
surplus to requirements.’

Thank you, Heavenly Father, that in the middle of
the sadness,
the anger,
the uncertainty,
the pain,

I can talk to you.

Hear me as I cry out in confusion,
help me to think clearly,
and calm my soul.

As life carries on,
may I know your presence with me
each and every day.

And as I look to the future,
help me to look for fresh opportunities, for new directions.
Guide me by your Spirit,
and show me your path,
through Jesus, the way, the truth and the life.  Amen.

  

Prayer for those remaining in the workplace

Life has changed:
colleagues have gone – redundant, out of work.

Suddenly, what seemed so secure is now so very fragile.

It’s hard to know what I feel:
sadness, certainly,
guilt, almost, at still having a job to go to,
and fear of the future:
who will be next?
how will I cope with the increased pressure of work?

Lord Jesus, in the midst of this uncertainty, help me to keep going:
to work to the best of my ability,
taking each day at a time,
and taking time each day to walk with you
for you are the way, the truth and the life.  Amen.

Personally, I think these aren't public prayers but guided meditations in the style of Michel Quoist. On the other hand if people find them helpful then great! Let me know if you do.

One person suggested this week that we need a prayer that we can all say on a regular basis during the course of the crisis. I haven't seen a prayer like this but if you have let me know. If there isn't anything available from the structures, perhaps we'll write one...

Facing the Downturn

(Article for this month's Voices magazine)

The Church is called to:

• Proclaim the good news of the kingdom
• Respond to human need by loving service
• Seek to transform unjust structures of society

(From the Five Marks of Mission)

It would be hard to have missed the fact that the past year has not been a good one for the global economy. A 'credit crunch' has become a 'slowdown' and looks likely to become a recession. The value of our savings is going down, costs are rising and our debts are increasing. Long established companies have already gone to the wall and people are loosing their jobs. Woolworths has disappeared from CMK...

While all this has been going on, life for the churches has been continuing much as before.  Although we have our own long term worries about money and deployment, on the whole the problems of the wider economy haven't affected us much, yet...

I think there's a danger that churches will drift through the recession, or even provide a 'safe' space where these issues don't get mentioned - after all it can be a bit depressing to have too much gloomy talk about money...

On the other hand, we are called to proclaim Good News, respond with loving action and seek to transform the unjust structures of society. I therefore think we have a duty to think, act and speak out during the difficulties that the next few years may bring...

The response of the churches must be carefully considered and based on real facts. There's no point offering solutions to problems that don't exist. Before we do anything else we need to find out what it really going on and what problems the people of Milton Keynes are likely to face over the next few years. To help this happen, the Mission Partnership Exec has asked a small group to do a bit of research. They're going to speak to some of the experts and authorities in the city and think about the advice that we can give to churches: what's going on? What problems are people likely to face? What can churches do in their local area? What could we do together?

I know that this is an issue that is already affecting many of our church members and I would really appreciate any data or anecdotal information that you can give us at this point. It would really be useful for us to know what's really going on so that we can think seriously about what we could all do to help.

Many thanks - Tim Norwood

Gearing up for a Recession

This evening was one of those classic first-day-back-at-work days with activity throughout the day and multiple meetings in the evening... what fun...

This evening's meetings were both worth while. Mary Cotes skipped the Mission Partnership Exec and gave a presentation to the Watling Valley about the Mission Partnership review - which seemed to focus on vision and was well received.

Although I did pop into the second half of this meeting I decided to go to the Exec - largely because my name was on the agenda a few times... mostly for reports from project groups...

This meeting did give me the opportunity to raise an issue that I've been thinking about for a few weeks...

I've been pondering the credit crunch and the oncoming recession and wondering what we should do about it. It seems to me that it would be easy for churches in MK to drift through it as bystanders. On the other hand there are some real issues beginning to emerge and there may be some useful things that we could do to prepare or respond as the economic downturn begins to affect people around us.

What we're going to do next is arrange a day at the end of January when four or five of our specialists do a bit of information gathering and speak to some of the key experts and authorities in the city. This day will hopefully give us a chance to take a snapshot of the situation in the city and give us some indication of the potential needs. My hope is that we would then be able to advise the churches about what appropriate action they could take locally or collectively.

I'm mentioning this on the blog, partly to let people know what we're up to, but also to invite responses - and start the process of information gathering - so if you have any factual or anecdotal information about the effects of the downturn on Milton Keynes please drop me line.